‘Sex Ratio, Marriage and International Migration: Are the Standards of Young Mexican Women Declining Due to the Scarcity of Men?

Arturo Vargas Bustamante

Historically, the migration flow from Mexico to the United States has been predominantly male. International migration is one reason for the decline observed in the sex ratio in Mexico for the age 0-15 and 15-64 cohorts. This drop in the sex ratio may have important consequences for the country’s economic and social development, since it affects marriage prospects, labor force participation, fertility and other social and economic variables.

The study will try to determine the causal relationship between a low sex ratio due to international migration with the proportion of women who marry, work, study, remain unmarried, or have children outside wedlock. It also proposes an assessment of human capital investment in children and of divorce rates in households where the father is present.

This analysis will explore the likely effects of a better bargaining position of married men due to the greater availability of women in the community. For this analysis, it will be necessary to determine a valid comparison group through quasi-experimental techniques. Until now, literature in the area has concentrated on the assimilation of Mexican immigrants to the United States. Nevertheless, there is no empirical evidence on the likely effects of a low sex ratio in sending communities from Mexico. The results of this research will benefit decision-makers and policy analysts in areas with high migration rates.